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What higher option to preview 2024 than to ask Velo’s editorial staff for his or her predictions, hot-takes, and wild and peculiar theories for the season to return?
Keep tuned via this week for our ideas on tech, coaching, tradition, and racing from the worlds of highway, gravel, E-biking and past:
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Shane: What may occur on the earth of professional biking in 2024?
A sport as complicated as that is notoriously unpredictable. Crashes, punctures, off days, on days, fortunate breaks, impressed gambles and the chess-like dynamic of race techniques imply that race outcomes are removed from sure, even when you have got purple scorching favourites heading into an occasion.
Nonetheless, let’s crank up the previous crystal ball and see what the upcoming season may need in retailer. Assume Tour de France data, younger rider breakthroughs and a giant staff desperately attempting to get again on monitor.
Cavendish to realize Tour stage win purpose
When Mark Cavendish crashed out of the 2023 yr’s Tour de France, the Manxman’s preliminary intuition was to carry agency on his deliberate retirement.
He had instructed his household and the world of biking that 2023 was going to be his final season, and when he suffered a fractured collarbone on stage 8, the shock of leaving a race the place he nonetheless had big ambitions was plan to see. So too the crushing blow to his morale.
Sitting equal first with Eddy Merckx on 34 Tour stage wins is one thing he’s vastly happy with. Cavendish is undoubtedly the perfect sprinter of all time. The possibility of including no less than another win and changing into the outright report holder saved him within the sport in recent times and, after going agonizingly shut final summer time when he was second on stage seven regardless of derailleur points, he is aware of that he’s nonetheless up there with the perfect within the sport.
Each that close to miss on the Tour plus a rousing victory on the ultimate stage of the Giro d’Italia led to this opinion piece someday after his crash, and the arguments why Cavendish ought to think about another season.
“Whether or not it’s with a redesigned Astana-Qazaqstan or a brand new squad, there may be advantage in constructing a crack leadout prepare round Cavendish for a ultimate Tour marketing campaign.
“Invoice it as Challenge 35, or some such catchy title; run publicity campaigns round it, maybe, simply as Cavendish’ sponsor Nike did for breaking the two hour barrier in marathon operating. Make it a clearly outlined season purpose for a clearly outlined squad and actually chase that concentrate on.”
A catchy slogan might or might not but happen, however issues have in any other case performed out as said in that article. Astana coaxed him to return, and has fortified his possibilities with a a lot stronger lineup within the sprints.
These introduced on board embody the vastly skilled ultimate kilometer specialist Michael Mørkøv plus the German sprinter Max Kanter. Cavendish’s former coach Vasilis Anastopoulos is, like Mørkøv, additionally reuniting from the 4 stage-winning QuickStep marketing campaign of 2021.
Cavendish will flip 39 subsequent Could and could be the second oldest-ever stage winner of the Tour if he achieves his purpose. Solely Pino Cerami at 41 years 95 days is extra senior. That underlines the size of the problem, however he wouldn’t come again except he actually believed he can do it.
Nothing is assured, however there’s a robust probability he can.
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Fem Van Empel to make a highway racing breakthrough:
Fem Van Empel is probably going higher identified to cyclocross followers than those that comply with highway racing, however it appears completely believable that the Visma-Lease a Bike rider will make a giant breakthrough on the highway in 2024.
Whereas she has had a really selective racing programme this winter, she has received 12 out of the 13 races she has disputed up to now. These embody the European championships in early November when she cruised residence over a minute and a half forward of fellow Dutchwoman Ceylin Alvarado.
It’s not simply that she nearly wins at will; it’s additionally the margin of a few of these victories that has made such a giant impression. That is why she would be the clear favourite for the world cyclocross championships on February 4th, the place she has a really robust probability of taking her second consecutive title.
Nonetheless she doubtless has massive targets for the approaching highway season. Her cross programme noticed durations of inaction and she or he is ensuring to not over-race herself in what’s the low season for many highway riders.
Van Empel had a small however spectacular highway marketing campaign in 2023, doing 19 days of competitors however clocking up some very stable outcomes.
These included three high 10 stage finishes within the Giro d’Italia Donne, with the-then 20 yr previous taking eleventh general and second within the youth classification, in addition to a stage win, the factors classification and sixth general within the Tour de l’Avenir Femmes. Second on a stage within the Tour de Romandie Féminin in September was additionally encouraging.
If Van Empel builds on her highway programme of 2023, be careful for some actually massive leads to 2024 and past. Her class is clear; her potential is big. The approaching months might give an additional indication of simply how good she will be.
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A time lag earlier than main outcomes enchancment at Ineos Grenadiers:
It’s all change at Ineos Grenadiers, with Dave Brailsford focusing increasingly on Jim Radcliffe’s plans to take over Manchester United. With soccer changing into a precedence and deputy staff principal Rod Ellingworth abruptly departing in November, the acquainted faces on the high are actually gone.
Brailsford’s involvement has been waning for a while and, parallel to that, the staff has had a modest couple of seasons. Chris Froome’s crash and departure was one issue, and so too the harm misfortunes of Egan Bernal and Tao Geoghegan Hart.
And whereas Geraint Thomas has completed what he can, together with taking second within the 2023 Giro d’Italia, he’s now 37 and up in opposition to the clock. As for Tom Pidcock, he has had moments of brilliance however remains to be constructing the consistency to be a grand tour contender. Carlos Rodríguez, fifth this yr, will doubtless want extra time too.
So what can we count on from 2024?
Effectively, a number of robust riders have left the staff, together with Geoghegan Hart, Dani Martinez, Luke Plapp, Pavel Sivakov and Ben Tulett. And whereas Andrew ‘AJ’ August, Tobias Foss and Óscar Rodríguez are all promising signings, there was a protracted time frame this autumn the place it appeared the staff was in utter limbo.
The just lately introduced appointments of John Allert, Dr. Scott Drawer and Steve Cummings as CEO, efficiency director and head of racing reassure considerably, exhibiting Ineos followers that Radcliffe and Brailsford’s consideration is just not completely on Manchester United.
However, even so, there may be prone to be a time frame earlier than issues settle into place.
There may be additionally the query about what the concentrate on soccer will imply for the biking staff. Will Ineos Grenadiers nonetheless be a precedence for Radcliffe and Brailsford, or will the calls for of attempting to resurrect Manchester United’s earlier success have implications for the biking venture?
Time will inform however, with rivals Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič all high favourites, one other Ineos Tour de France victory is probably going a way off.
The ship may but proper its course, however it is going to want some very cautious steering. And that’s going to take time.
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